Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election on Tuesday has captured national attention as a potential bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections. Traditionally a conservative stronghold, the race pits Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps against Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn. The winner will replace former Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July.
Key Candidates and Campaign Dynamics
Matt Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and Tennessee Department of General Services commissioner, has secured high-profile support from President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, reflecting Republican concerns about the safety of the district.
Aftyn Behn has campaigned on cost-of-living issues, healthcare affordability, and local economic challenges. Her campaign has drawn attention from national Democratic figures, including former Vice President Al Gore, progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who have praised her efforts to compete in a traditionally Republican district.
Affordability as the Central Issue
Both campaigns have centered on affordability. Behn highlights rising healthcare and grocery costs in a recent ad featuring a mechanical bull, stating, “hardworking Tennesseans are getting a rough ride.”
Van Epps counters by emphasizing that Democrats will raise taxes and costs, asserting in ads and interviews that his campaign, aligned with Trump and Johnson, is focused on reducing the cost of living.
Past Controversies and Republican Criticism
Republicans have highlighted Behn’s past remarks, including self-identifying as a “very radical person” and previously supporting defunding the police. Behn has addressed these comments, noting that they predate her tenure as a lawmaker and asserting she has “matured” since then. She emphasized that decisions on law enforcement funding should be made locally.
Van Epps, however, continues to label Behn as a “radical disaster” in campaign ads, warning that her policies would negatively impact Tennessee families.
National Attention and Political Stakes
The election has drawn national interest due to the fragile Republican majority in the U.S. House. Democrats are positioned to fill upcoming vacancies, including those in Texas and New Jersey, while Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene plans to resign in January. Every seat matters as Republicans hold a slim 219-213 majority, making this Tennessee race particularly consequential.
Outside spending has been significant, with more than $5 million poured into ads since last month’s primary, split roughly $3 million from Republican-aligned groups and $2 million from Democratic allies.
The Broader Democratic Strategy
Democrats have outperformed their 2024 margins in U.S. House special elections this year by an average of 16 points, giving the party hope that even a close result in Tennessee could signal momentum heading into the midterms. National Democrats, including party chair Ken Martin, have highlighted Behn’s character and determination as evidence that she can appeal to moderate and swing voters in this historically Republican district.
District Profile and Voter Demographics
The 7th District now stretches from top-to-bottom through Middle Tennessee, including portions of Nashville. Redistricting after the 2020 Census has shaped the district into a Republican-leaning seat, but shifting voter concerns around affordability, healthcare, and economic stability could make this race competitive.
Why This Election Matters
The Tennessee special election serves as both a referendum on local economic issues and a test of party strength nationwide. Political analysts see it as a barometer for how Democrats’ cost-of-living message resonates in traditionally conservative districts, while Republicans hope a victory reinforces their control over the House and strengthens Trump-backed candidates ahead of 2026.
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