As the festive season approaches, football fans turn their attention to a familiar Premier League tradition: who is top and who is bottom at Christmas? This year, Arsenal find themselves perched at the summit of English football, while Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham are dangerously close to the relegation zone. But what does history tell us about the implications of Christmas standings for the title race and the relegation battle?
The Title Race: Can Arsenal Break the Christmas Curse?
Historically, the team leading the Premier League at Christmas has gone on to lift the trophy in 17 out of the past 33 seasons. That’s roughly a 50/50 chance, giving fans a tantalizing mix of hope and anxiety.
For Arsenal, however, the story is slightly gloomier. Despite topping the table four times at Christmas in the Premier League era, the Gunners have never converted that festive lead into a league title. Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have experienced a shift, with the club leading at Christmas three times in the last four seasons.
Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha told Football Focus:
“You’d like to think that through all the experiences that Arsenal have had being top at Christmas, they can understand the mistakes made in the back half of some seasons that stopped them from winning the title.”
This season, Arsenal’s slender two-point lead over Manchester City is below the historical average of a four-point advantage for Christmas leaders. Interestingly, in the last 12 seasons, the only smaller lead than Arsenal’s was… Arsenal themselves, two years ago. Despite this, history suggests a two-point lead can be enough. Out of eight teams in Premier League history with a two-point advantage at Christmas, five went on to win the title, including the last four.
Arsenal’s Historical Title Chase
Bizarrely, Arsenal are the only Premier League club to win the title without ever being top at Christmas. Their three league victories—1997-98, 2001-02, and 2003-04—came from chasing the leaders. In 1997-98, they were a staggering 13 points behind Manchester United at Christmas, the largest deficit ever overcome to claim the title (with a game in hand).
Meanwhile, the second-placed team at Christmas rarely goes on to win the league—only twice in the last 17 seasons, both times Manchester City. In fact, if history holds, the next few months will see Arsenal tested heavily by Pep Guardiola’s experienced squad.
Arsenal vs Manchester City: Experience vs Potential
Arsenal fans are understandably cautious. Leading the league at Christmas, only to see Manchester City close the gap, has become a familiar scenario. Over the last five seasons where the Christmas leaders failed to win, City took the crown.
Bukayo Saka remains optimistic:
“We’re back on top of the table but we’re not watching City too much, or the other teams. We’re in control now. We know if we win every week we’ll stay there.”
Mikel Arteta emphasized focus over distraction:
“The only thing we can control is our own performance and results. We know how long it’s going to be and how tough this league is. That’s it.”
On the other side, Guardiola brings unparalleled experience, having won six Premier League titles, three Bundesliga titles, and three La Liga titles. Arsenal’s squad, in contrast, has limited league-winning experience, with Gabriel Jesus being the only player to have won multiple Premier League trophies.
This season, though, Manchester City are not as invincible as before, having already lost four games compared to Arsenal’s two. Both teams’ performances over the next few months will likely define whether Arsenal can finally break their Christmas curse.
The Relegation Battle: Can Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham Survive?
At the other end of the table, the Christmas bottom team rarely survives. In 33 Premier League seasons, only four sides have survived, most recently Wolves in 2022-23. With just two points accumulated and a 16-point gap to safety, Wolves face a monumental challenge.
Burnley, in second-bottom, have a more plausible chance. Historically, almost half the teams in this position have avoided relegation, though only Newcastle under Eddie Howe in 2021-22 has done so in the last eight seasons. West Ham, in 18th, also have reason to be cautiously optimistic. Over the past three seasons, teams in 18th have survived twice, including Nottingham Forest in 2022-23.
Interestingly, no season has seen all three bottom teams survive, while four seasons have seen all three relegated, including 2020-21 and 2023-24.
Some historical anomalies remind us that even mid-table teams at Christmas can suffer relegation. Norwich in 1994-95 were seventh at Christmas but went down, while Blackpool in 2010-11, and Newcastle in 2008-09 also fell despite being 10th or 12th.
Conclusion: Christmas Standings Are a Snapshot, Not a Guarantee
As the Premier League heads into the festive period, the Christmas table provides excitement and anticipation but no certainties. Arsenal’s fans dream of ending the long wait for a league title, while Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham brace for the survival battle. History shows that while festive standings can hint at trends, football is full of surprises—and anything can happen in the second half of the season.
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