US President Donald Trump has asked for at least $100 billion in oil industry spending to unlock Venezuela’s oil reserves. However, top executives from major US oil firms voiced caution, describing the South American nation as “uninvestable” under current conditions.
What Trump Wants
Trump envisions US control over Venezuelan oil sales after a raid on the country’s capital on 3 January, which ousted President Nicolás Maduro. He told executives at a White House meeting:
“One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices.”
He emphasized that firms would deal directly with the US, not Venezuelan authorities, and promised a selective rollback of US sanctions to enable production.
Industry Response
Executives welcomed the idea of accessing Venezuela’s vast oil reserves but expressed caution:
- Exxon CEO Darren Woods: “We have had our assets seized there twice… today it’s uninvestable.”
- Chevron: The last major US oil company still operating in Venezuela, plans to expand production.
- Repsol: Could potentially triple output over the next few years under favorable conditions.
- Other firms indicated they were willing to explore opportunities but no major financial commitments were made.
Analysts stressed that political instability, lack of legal certainty, and security risks make large-scale investment difficult.
“Exxon and Shell are not going to invest tens of billions without physical security, legal certainty, and a competitive fiscal framework,” said David Goldwyn, former US special envoy for international energy affairs.
The Numbers
- Venezuela currently produces ~1 million barrels per day, less than 1% of global supply.
- Rystad Energy estimates $8–9 billion in investment per year is needed to triple production by 2040.
- Trump’s $100 billion figure is seen as highly ambitious, requiring political stability and government subsidies to attract major firms.
Challenges Ahead
Investing in Venezuela oil faces multiple hurdles:
- Historical expropriations – US companies have had assets seized before.
- Political uncertainty – Maduro loyalists still hold significant power.
- Infrastructure decay – decades of underinvestment and mismanagement have weakened oil production capacity.
- Security risks – physical threats to personnel and facilities remain high.
Smaller independent companies might invest modest amounts ($50 million range), but large-scale production increases would take years.
Conclusion
While Trump’s plan has generated interest among oil executives, it is far from a guaranteed success. Analysts warn that without a fully stabilized political environment and clear investment framework, the $100 billion target is unlikely to materialize, and global oil prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the near term.
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