– A significant increase in the pump price of petrol and diesel is imminent following President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15% import duty on these products.

The approval was conveyed in an October 21, 2025, letter from the Private Secretary to the President, Damilotun Aderemi, to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The move grants a FIRS request to apply the ad valorem duty on the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) value of imports to align them with domestic economic realities.

Immediate Impact on Pump Prices

The new duty is projected to add approximately N99.72 to the current cost of a litre of fuel. This would push the retail price of petrol in Abuja, currently between N950 and N960 per litre, to well over N1,000 per litre for the majority of filling stations that rely on imported products.

Similarly, the price of diesel, now between N1,120 and N1,140, is set for a corresponding increase.

Dangote Refinery Gains Competitive Edge

The policy shift comes at a time when Nigeria still depends heavily on imported fuel. Recent NMDPRA data shows that from August 2024 to October 2025, 69% of the nation’s petrol supply (15.01 billion litres) was imported, while only 31% was sourced from the local Dangote Refinery.

The import duty will inadvertently advantage Dangote’s domestically produced petrol. Before this duty, the land cost of imported fuel was N839.97 per litre, cheaper than Dangote’s ex-depot price of N877. The new tax narrows this cost gap, making the locally refined product more competitive.

This development follows recent nationwide fuel price hikes triggered by increases in ex-depot prices from Dangote Refinery and other depot owners. It also coincides with the FIRS’s recent directive for financial institutions to deduct a 10% withholding tax on interest from short-term securities, signaling a broader push for increased government revenue.