U.S. consumer prices are expected to have posted their largest annual increase in 18 months in November, economists predict, highlighting the ongoing affordability challenges faced by Americans. Rising prices have been partly attributed to tariffs on imports and supply chain pressures, adding stress to household budgets across the country.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November on Tuesday. However, due to the unprecedented 43-day federal government shutdown in October, month-to-month CPI data will not be available, as data collection for that month was impossible. This disruption also affected other economic indicators, including the unemployment rate, which was not published for October for the first time in U.S. history.

November CPI: The Year-on-Year Increase

Economists surveyed by Reuters estimate that the CPI likely increased 3.1% year-on-year in November, the highest gain since May 2024. For context, the CPI had advanced 3.0% in the 12 months through September 2025. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 3.0%, consistent with September’s increase. This reflects price growth in areas like housing and other goods, although lower costs in airfare, hotels, and motels may partially offset the rise.

Analysts caution that delayed data collection may slightly understate November inflation. Retailers often provide holiday season discounts, which could temporarily suppress prices for items such as furniture, electronics, and recreational goods. As economist Veronica Clark from Citigroup noted:

“November CPI this year could capture a period that more heavily reflects holiday season discounts than a usual November, which would reflect average prices through the whole month.”

Tariffs and Rising Costs

Import tariffs imposed during President Donald Trump’s administration have played a notable role in driving up prices for many goods. According to Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, roughly 40% of tariff costs had been passed on to consumers by September 2025. This proportion is expected to climb gradually to 70% by March 2026, before stabilizing.

The impact of tariffs has disproportionately affected lower-income households, who have limited savings and slower wage growth relative to other workers. As a result, everyday goods such as groceries, household supplies, and imported products have become more expensive for many Americans.

Federal Reserve and Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve tracks inflation using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is closely related to the CPI. Both PCE and CPI measures remain above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed recently cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, signaling that borrowing costs are unlikely to decline further until inflation trends become clearer.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that tariffs are a major driver of the recent inflation overshoot, explaining why certain consumer goods have continued to rise in price despite monetary policy measures. Analysts warn that goods inflation may spike again in the first quarter of 2026, as companies reassess pricing at the start of the calendar year.

Looking Ahead: Consumer Impacts

The ongoing surge in U.S. consumer prices comes as Americans are already facing challenges from high energy costs, housing prices, and imported goods tariffs. While some relief may be expected from rolling back duties on specific imports like beef, bananas, and coffee, economists warn that lower prices may take time to materialize.

Andy Schneider, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, observed:

“Downward inflation progress has stalled. This largely reflects companies in goods-producing sectors passing tariff costs through into prices.”

Consumers may also see temporary relief from holiday season promotions, but these discounts could result in higher prices in subsequent months. The combination of tariffs, supply chain pressures, and policy adjustments will continue to influence cost-of-living trends in the U.S.